Assessing synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services in highly urbanized area under different scenarios of future land use change

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is one of the major causes of the degradation of ecosystem services (ESs), which poses serious threats to the ecological security of cities. Assessing ESs and their trade-offs and synergies is crucial for enhancing integrated ESs and promoting coordinated economic-social-ecological development in highly urbanized regions. This study used a combined GeoSOS-FLUS-InVEST model to simulate the trends and spatial distribution of five essential ESs (carbon sequestration, habitat quality, water conservation, soil retention and food supply) and explored their trade-offs and synergies under three future scenarios: natural development scenario, policy optimization scenario, and sustainable development scenario. Results showed that: (1) Carbon sequestration, habitat quality, water conservation, and soil retention services exhibit a declining trend from land to sea, while food supply service is closely linked to land use types; (2) The integrated ESs of all three future scenarios decreased compared to 2020. Among them, the integrated ESs under the sustainable development scenario surpassed those of the policy optimization scenario and the natural development scenario; (3) In Xiamen, the ESs were predominantly characterized by synergy, with trade-off relationship occurring sporadically in certain parts of the city. The sustainable development scenario exhibits the highest number of synergy units and the fewest trade-off units. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into managing the inherent contradictions between ecological conservation and human development in other rapidly urbanizing regions with similar challenges.

Keywords

• Ecosystem service
• Trade-off/synergy
• Scenario simulation
• InVEST model
• Xiamen city