O método Delphi e a estrutura da economia brasileira em 2010

Abstract

Dealing with data for final demand, value added, gross output, employment and household consumption derived from the Brazilian input-outputtables of 1959,1970,1980,1990 and 1998, this article had the purpose of, dealing with the Delphi Method, generating the corresponding figuresfor 2010. The original data have shown deep structural change in Brazil. From 1959 to 1990, Agriculture swapped its position with both Industry and Services. In 2010, it is expected that the primary and secondary sectors will face additional reductions in their shares, while Services will generate near 60% ofthe economy's value added. The relative positions of these big sectors shows that Brazil has a long road to cover to match the sectoral structure of the advanced capitalist countries. The suggested structure of household consumption for 2010 does not appear to face substantial changes, with the lower 70% embracing slightly more than one fifth of this variable.

Keywords

• Delphi method
• structural change
• economic forecasts