A new prognostic score for predicting survival in patients treated with robotic stereotactic radiotherapy for brain metastases

Abstract

Abstract The study aimed to analyze potential prognostic factors in patients treated with robotic radiosurgery for brain metastases irrespective of primary tumor location and create a simple prognostic score that can be used without a full diagnostic workup. A retrospective analysis of 142 patients with 1–9 brain metastases treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (1–4 fractions) was performed. Volumes of all lesions were calculated using linear dimensions of the tumors (CC, LR, AP) and 4/3*π*(CC/2)*(LR/2)*(AP/2) formula. Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze survival. Variables significantly associated with overall survival in univariate analysis were included in Cox multivariate analysis. The validity of the model was tested with the bootstrap method. Variables from the final model were used to construct a new prognostic index by assigning points according to the impact of a specific variable on overall survival. In the multivariate analysis, four factors: Karnofsky Performance Status (p = 0.000068), number of brain metastases (p = 0.019), volume of the largest lesion (p = 0.0037), and presence of extracerebral metastases (p = 0.0017), were independent predictors of survival. Total scores ranged from 0 to 12 points, and patients were divided into four groups based on median survival of each subgroup: 0–1 points—18.8 months, 2–3 points—16.9 months, 4–5 points—5.6 months, and ≥ 6 points—4.9 months (p < 0.001). The new prognostic index is simple to calculate. It has a strong prognostic value in a heterogeneous population of patients with a various number of brain metastases, but its value requires confirmation in another cohort.