Scenario‐based extreme flood risk analysis of Xiong'an New Area in northern China

Abstract

Abstract Weather disasters, with floods amongst the most destructive, are increasingly being correlated with climate change. Flood warning measures, for which accurate simulation of flood evolution processes is required, are crucial to avoid human and economic losses. Xiong'an New Area was developed as a hub in northern China, implying an influx of residents and increased economic activity. However, this area is located downstream of the Baiyangdian Lake Basin; therefore, evaluating the flood risk here is vital. We applied a hydrodynamic model in our study and, to simulate the flood inundation process, we employed terrain spatial resolution; we calibrated and validated the model parameters using AnXin hydrological observation data. The results showed a relative water‐level error of 5.25%, indicating our model was largely reliable. We calculated the annual exceedance probability of peak discharge against the magnitude and frequency of historical flood‐peak streamflow in the basin. We simulated the flood submerged area under three scenarios, that is, return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years, and compared the effects of floods under these scenarios against the urban development planning of Xiong'an New Area. Our results provide practical guidance for flood control planning and crucial insight for urban planning in Xiong'an New Area.

Keywords

• different return periods scenarios
• flood risk
• hydrodynamic model
• inundation extent
• Xiong'an New Area