e-Prime: Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy (Jun 2023)
An evaluation of the expected wind dynamics in the black sea in the context of the climate change
Abstract
The main target of this work is to carry out an analysis of the most credible scenarios concerning the expected dynamics of the wind climate along the 21st century in the Black Sea basin. The data provided by the RCA4 climate wind model were processed and analysed. Three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios are considered. These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The study is structured considering two 40-year time intervals. These are the near future (2021–2060), and the next 40=year time interval (2061–2100), denoted as the distant future. Moreover, in order to have a mean of comparison, the 40-year time interval (1980–2019) denoted as the recent past was also analysed. Two different parameters are processed and analysed in this study. These are the average wind power density and the maximum wind speed. The results indicate a moderate enhancement of the average wind power in the western part of the sea (of about10–20%). The coastal areas from the western and north-western parts of the sea have been identified as the most energetic and they are more appropriate for harvesting wind energy. At the same time, the results of this work indicate that in the basin of the Black Sea an increase of the maximum wind speed values is expected in the future. From this perspective, the future high storms in this basin are expected to have quite similar features with the hurricanes from the Atlantic Ocean.
