Modeling Current and Future Distribution of <i>Cochlodina laminata</i> in Eastern Europe under Climate Change

Abstract

In this study, we focused on the eastern part of the Cochlodina laminata range. Although this door snail is widespread in Europe, even a widespread species may lose habitats if future climate change projections are realized. The range shift is one of the consequences of climate change. We applied SDM methods to model the current potential range of C. laminata and the range shift after 40 and after 80 years. We used climatic parameters as predictors. The annual mean temperature has the greatest impact on the modeling results (about 30–60% among models). The precipitation of the warmest quarter also had a high relative importance (about 15–40% among models). For future projections, we considered two shared socio-economic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585). We applied three algorithms: the generalized additive model (GAM), support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) and ensemble prediction. Our projections showed a decrease in habitable area in the eastern part of the range of C. laminata in 40 and in 80 years. According to the forecast, the habitat suitable area will become more fragmented. The range shift with new suitable areas is expected toward the east direction.

Keywords

• ecological modeling
• SDM
• climate change
• species distribution
• Clausiliidae