Vigor–Organization–Resilience Framework for Assessing Ecosystem Health in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau

Abstract

Ecosystem health (EH) assessment is vital for understanding and improving the state of ecosystems. Analyzing the geographical and temporal evolution and predicting future EH trends under land-use changes deepens our understanding of regional ecosystem dynamics. This method offers valuable insights for managing and sustaining ecosystems, highlighting the importance of incorporating land-use changes in EH assessments. In this study, the CA-Markov model is used to predict future vegetation and land use in 2030. Additionally, it utilizes the vigor–organization–resilience (VOR) framework to evaluate the current and future health of the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP) ecosystem. The analysis is based on vegetation and land-use data from 1980 to 2020. EH is unhealthy in most areas of the QXP, with 63.17% of the area in grades “seriously unhealthy” and “generally unhealthy”, 18.30% in grades “sub-healthy”, only 18.53% in grades “generally healthy”, and none in grades “pretty healthy”. The EH of the QXP deteriorated markedly between 1980 and 2000 due to factors such as overgrazing and indiscriminate logging. The EH of the QXP reached its lowest point in 2000 and has been gradually improving since then due to ecological engineering and environmental awareness. Based on the 2030 projection, the area of healthier ecosystems (“generally healthy” and “pretty healthy”) on QXP will reach its highest value. The results provide a new research tool that can markedly broaden the time series for EH studies and effectively inform current and future ecological development on the QXP.