Revista de Economie Mondială (Dec 2018)
THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR. WHAT'S AT STAKE?
Abstract
After being trapped in an increasingly fierce and devastating trade war over the last months, Washington and Beijing managed to conclude a temporary truce during President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. Starting from the analysis of the current state of the US-China trade war, this article aims to: (1) highlight the effects of this trade war, both from the perspective of the parties implied, and the global trading system; (2) reveal the reasons behind this war, as well as its real stakes; and (3) assess the outlook for this war in the light of the recent US-China ceasefire. While the temporary truce in the US-China trade war does not solve the fundamental differences between the two nations, it allows the resumption of the negotiations to resolve a trade dispute that has dangereously escalated over the last months, damaging the global economy. The trade war between the two largest economies in the world is far from over. There is also little hope for the two sides to strike a comprehensive agreement in the near future, and the prospects for the long-term Sino-American relationship are fraught with major uncertainties.
