Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Path for China’s Power Industry

Abstract

The low-carbon transformation of power sector is significant for achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China. Based on the evaluation of power carbon budget, three power transformation scenarios of deep low-carbon, zero carbon, and negative carbon were built, the key boundary conditions such as power consumption demand were studied, and a path planning optimization model was established in the paper. Using the GESP-V software package for optimized analysis, the low-carbon transformation paths were determined for power structure, power carbon emissions, and power supply costs under different scenarios. The major issues that are critical for the low-carbon transformation of the power system were discussed, including coal power development, renewable energy development and utilization, diversified supply of clean energy, and electric power balance. Several suggestions were further proposed. Specifically, the top-level design should be strengthened to steadily plan the transformation pace, major low-carbon technologies should be developed to coordinate the overall technology and industrial layout, and the market mechanism with balanced interests should be improved while establishing a green finance policy system. The high-quality low-carbon transformation of China’s power sector in the medium and long term can be promoted through the coordination of policies, technologies, and mechanisms.

Keywords

• carbon peak, carbon neutrality, power transformation path, carbon budget, carbon emission reduction, scenario analysis, power supply cost