Increases in Temperature and Precipitation in the Different Regions of the Tarim River Basin Between 1961 and 2021 Show Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity

Abstract

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) faces significant ecological challenges due to global warming, making it essential to understand the changes in the climates of its sub-basins for effective management. With this aim, data from national meteorological stations, ERA5_Land, and climate indices from 1961 to 2021 were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation variations in the TRB and its sub-basins and to assess their climate sensitivity. Our results showed that (1) the annual mean temperature increased by 0.2 °C/10a and precipitation increased by 7.1 mm/10a between 1961 and 2021. Moreover, precipitation trends varied significantly among the sub-basins, with that in the Aksu River Basin increasing the most (12.9 mm/10a) and that in the Cherchen River Basin increasing the least (1.9 mm/10a). Moreover, ERA5_Land data accurately reproduced the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature (correlation 0.92) and precipitation (correlation 0.72) in the TRB. (2) Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis identified the northern sections of the Kaidu, Weigan, and Yerqiang river basins as centers of temperature sensitivity and the western part of the Kaidu and Cherchen River Basin as the center of precipitation sensitivity. (3) Global warming is closely correlated with sub-basin temperature (correlation above 0.5) but weakly correlated with precipitation (correlation 0.2~0.5). TRB temperatures were found to have a positive correlation with AMO, especially in the Hotan, Kashgar, and Aksu river basins, and a negative correlation with AO and NAO, particularly in the Keriya and Hotan river basins. Precipitation correlations between the climate indices were complex and varied across the different basins.

Keywords

• Tarim River Basin
• temperature
• precipitation
• spatial and temporal heterogeneity