Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time

Arabinda Maiti; Md Kamrul Hasan; Srikanta Sannigrahi; Somnath Bar; Suman Chakraborti; Shanti Shwarup Mahto; Sumanta Chatterjee; Suvamoy Pramanik; Francesco Pilla; Jeremy Auerbach; Oliver Sonnentag; Conghe Song; Qi Zhang

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01414-7

Communications Earth & Environment (Jun 2024)

Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time

Arabinda Maiti,
Md Kamrul Hasan,
Srikanta Sannigrahi,
Somnath Bar,
Suman Chakraborti,
Shanti Shwarup Mahto,
Sumanta Chatterjee,
Suvamoy Pramanik,
Francesco Pilla,
Jeremy Auerbach,
Oliver Sonnentag,
Conghe Song,
Qi Zhang

Affiliations

Arabinda Maiti: Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University
Md Kamrul Hasan: Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, Patuakhali Science and Technology University
Srikanta Sannigrahi: School of Geography, Newman Building, University College Dublin
Somnath Bar: School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield
Suman Chakraborti: Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Shanti Shwarup Mahto: Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)
Sumanta Chatterjee: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory
Suvamoy Pramanik: Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Francesco Pilla: School of Architecture Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8
Jeremy Auerbach: School of Geography, Newman Building, University College Dublin
Oliver Sonnentag: Département de géographie & Centre d’études nordiques, Université de Montréal
Conghe Song: Department of Geography and Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Qi Zhang: Department of Geography and Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01414-7
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 5, no. 1
pp. 1 – 8

Abstract

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Abstract Climate change affects Indian agriculture, which depends heavily on the spatiotemporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. Despite the nonlinear relationship between crop yield and rainfall, little is known about the optimal rainfall threshold, particularly for monsoon rice. Here, we investigate the responses of rice yield to monsoon rainfall in India by analyzing historical rice production statistics and climate data from 1990 to 2017. Results show that excessive and deficit rainfall reduces rice yield by 33.7% and 19%, respectively. The overall optimal rainfall threshold nationwide is 1621 ± 34 mm beyond which rice yield declines by 6.4 kg per hectare per 100 mm of rainfall, while the identifiable thresholds vary spatially across 14 states. The temporal variations in rice yield are influenced by rainfall anomalies featured by El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.

Published in Communications Earth & Environment

ISSN: 2662-4435 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science: Geology; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Environmental sciences
Website: https://www.nature.com/commsenv/

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