Coupled coordination of water resources–economy–ecosystem complex in the Henan section of the Yellow River basin

Abstract

This study investigates the coordination of factors in the three coupled systems of water resources, economy and ecosystem. The study data were economic, social, environmental and water resource indicators of the Henan section of the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2019. Data were analyzed using a model of coupling coordination, grey relational analysis and a combined sparrow search algorithm–back propagation (SSA-BP) prediction model. Evaluation, analysis and prediction of the water resources–economy–ecosystem complex were undertaken. The results show that: (1) the degree of coupling coordination of the water resources–economy–ecosystem complex in the Henan section of the Yellow River basin showed an increasing trend that reached 0.8105 in 2019, which indicates good coordination; (2) the water resources subsystem had the greatest influence on the overall degree of coupling coordination, followed by the economic and natural environment subsystems; and (3) the SSA-BP model predicted that the degree of coupling coordination would remain good for the next six years and reach 0.8333 in 2025. To ensure the sustainability of expected rapid economic development, Henan Province must increase the utilization efficiency of water resources, strengthen environmental protection, and coordinate development in the region. HIGHLIGHTS An evaluation model of the coupled water resources–economy–ecosystem development of the Henan section of the Yellow River basin was established.; A new method for future forecasting of regional coupling coordination is proposed.; The main factors affecting the degree of coordinated water resources–economy–ecosystem development in the Henan section of the Yellow River basin were identified.;

Keywords

• comprehensive evaluation
• coupling coordination degree
• grey relational analysis
• henan section of the yellow river basin
• ssa-bp combined model