Development of Machine Learning-Based Production Forecasting for Offshore Gas Fields Using a Dynamic Material Balance Equation

Abstract

Offshore oil and gas fields pose significant challenges due to their lower accessibility compared to onshore fields. To enhance operational efficiency in these deep-sea environments, it is essential to design optimal fluid production conditions that ensure equipment durability and flow safety. This study aims to develop a smart operational solution that integrates data from three offshore gas fields with a dynamic material balance equation (DMBE) method. By combining the material balance equation and inflow performance relation (IPR), we establish a reservoir flow analysis model linked to an AI-trained production pipe and subsea pipeline flow analysis model. We simulate time-dependent changes in reservoir production capacity using DMBE and IPR. Additionally, we utilize SLB’s PIPESIM software to create a vertical flow performance (VFP) table under various conditions. Machine learning techniques train this VFP table to analyze pipeline flow characteristics and parameter correlations, ultimately developing a model to predict bottomhole pressure (BHP) for specific production conditions. Our research employs three methods to select the deep learning model, ultimately opting for a multilayer perceptron (MLP) combined with regression. The trained model’s predictions show an average error rate of within 1.5% when compared with existing commercial simulators, demonstrating high accuracy. This research is expected to enable efficient production management and risk forecasting for each well, thus increasing revenue, minimizing operational costs, and contributing to stable plant operations and predictive maintenance of equipment.

Keywords

• offshore gas fields
• machine learning
• DMBE
• production forecasting