An inflammatory liquid fingerprint predicting tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Tumor recurrence is a life‐threatening complication after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Precise recurrence risk stratification before transplantation is essential for the management of recipients. Here, we aimed to establish an inflammation‐related prediction model for posttransplant HCC recurrence based on pretransplant peripheral cytokine profiling. Two hundred and ninety‐three patients who underwent LT in two independent medical centers were enrolled, and their pretransplant plasma samples were sent for cytokine profiling. We identified four independent risk factors, including alpha‐fetoprotein, systemic immune‐inflammation index, interleukin 6, and osteocalcin in the training cohort (n = 190) by COX regression analysis. A prediction model named inflammatory fingerprint (IFP) was established based on the above factors. The IFP effectively predicted posttransplant recurrence (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.792, C‐index: 0.736). The high IFP group recipients had significantly worse 3‐year recurrence‐free survival rates (37.9 vs. 86.9%, p < 0.001). Simultaneous T‐cell profiling revealed that recipients with high IFP were characterized by impaired T cell function. The IFP also performed well in the validation cohort (n = 103, AUROC: 0.807, C‐index: 0.681). In conclusion, the IFP efficiently predicted posttransplant HCC recurrence and helped to refine pretransplant risk stratification. Impaired T cell function might be the intrinsic mechanism for the high recurrence risk of recipients in the high IFP group.

Keywords

• cytokines
• hepatocellular carcinoma
• liver transplantation
• prognostic model
• T‐cell profiling