Support for Expert Estimations in Transportation Projects

Abstract

This paper deals with risk analysis as a part of the financial assessment of transportation projects. Two approaches to risk assessment are discussed. A risk can be evaluated either directly in terms of the probabilistic distribution of the assessment criterion; or an indirect determination of the risk can be applied without constructing the probability distribution, but by determining the characteristic features of the project.

Keywords

• decision-making
• economic risk
• direct determination of the project’s risk
• subjective probabilities