Forecasting Saudi Arabia’s production and imports of broiler meat chickens and its effect on expected self-sufficiency ratio

Abstract

This research interested in forecasting Saudi production and imports of broiler meat chicken and compute expected self-sufficiency ratio to the period 2017–2021. The study depended on the time series data, VARX (1) model with non-intercept at the first difference was suggested to forecast imports and ARIMA (0,1,1) model to forecast production. The results showed that predicated imports from Brazil decreased by annual growth rate 0.52%, and other countries also decreased by annual growth rate 0.20%. The production increasing by annual growth rate 4.2%, expected self-sufficiency ratio increase from 52.9% in 2017 to 57.4% in 2021 by annual growth 2.09%.

Keywords

• ARIMA
• Forecasting
• Imports
• Production
• Saudi Arabia
• Self Sufficient ratio