Meteorological and satellite-based data for drought prediction using data-driven model

Abstract

This work presents a data-driven model, the Artificial Neural Network-Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (ANN-MLP), for use in meteorological drought deciles index (DDI) predictions over various climatic sub-zone. Two types of rainfall data from meteorological weather stations (WSs) and satellite-based estimates of PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network) were adopted. This work considered the calculated DDI (DDI original) from WSs to train and develop the proposed algorithm at three sub-zones (ANN-MLP-DDI models). The newly developed model was tested for DDI prediction using PERSIANN, and compared with the calculated DDI original from WSs. The results positively revealed that the ANN-MLP-DDI models showed high performance (Correlation coefficient r= 0.981) for DDI prediction against the DDI original from WSs. It can be concluded that data-driven models are feasible for drought prediction, and this work could help water managers in mitigating drought impacts and in providing information for policy makers

Keywords

• Drought Deciles index
• Meteorological Drought
• Multilayer Perceptron
• Hydrology