Projection of rainfall variability in Egypt by regional climate model simulations

Abstract

This study analyzed rainfall projections in Egypt throughout the current century in the context of climate change. Three common bias-correction methods were applied to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of precipitation regarding the observed daily rainfall data of 15 locations in Egypt. The results revealed that the empirical quantile mapping was the most appropriate method to correct the projection of rainfall indices. The projected changes in rainfall showed significant increases at most locations for all future scenarios. The western part of the country will be the most affected by climate change, anticipating a significant increase in precipitation, in contrast to the regions of the Nile Valley, Delta, and the Northern Coast, which may witness a decrease in precipitation and an increase in meteorological drought. Under the worst-case scenario, the rate of increase in rainfall indices over the country is expected to decline during the last decade of the century. These findings will provide a better understanding of the future changes in precipitation that may have critical impacts on the development in Egypt. HIGHLIGHTS The research introduces insights into rainfall projections in Egypt throughout the current century in the context of climate change.; The western part of the country will be the most affected by climate change, anticipating a significant increase in precipitation.; The regions of the Nile Valley, Delta, and the Northern Coast may witness a decrease in precipitation.;

Keywords

• bias correction
• climate change
• egypt
• precipitation
• rcm
• rcp