Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

Abstract The current study explores the relationship between solar variability and tropical cyclone (TC) activity using sunspot number (SSN) and TC best‐track data as respective proxies. We have considered six regions of the globe, for example, EP: Eastern Pacific, NA: North Atlantic, NI: North Indian, SI: South Indian, SP: South Pacific, and WP: Western Pacific. The results show strong anti‐correlation between yearly TC activity and yearly SSN while considering their 11‐year moving averages. This behavior is consistent for TC counts as well as accumulated cyclone energy. However, this is true only for the North Atlantic region. Overall, when we consider all regions together, more TCs (in terms of counts) are observed during lower solar activity periods (SSN 100). However, the yearly rates remain more or less similar. On the other hand, extreme TC events with a maximum wind speed of 137 knots and higher (category 5) are most likely to occur during the declining phase of a solar cycle and least likely to occur during the ascending phase or the maximum phase. Although solar activity levels are similar during the declining and ascending phases, the yearly occurrence rate is nearly double in the declining phase (1.123) as compared to that in the ascending phase (0.625).

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• solar activity
• sunspot number
• hurricane