Estimation of predictive potential of El Nino (La Nina) for long-term precipitation forecast in Iraq

Abstract

The El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the most important form of tropical climate change. By modifying the distribution of rainfall and temperatures, it sometimes engenders devastating effects in many tropical regions and even in high latitudes. The aim of this study was to choose the El Nino event as a potential predictor for long-term precipitation forecast in Iraq in the presence of opposite patterns in Iraq's precipitation distribution at different phases of the El Nino event. The results indicate that calculating the frequency of occurrence of precipitation gradations in Iraq during the warm and cold phases of ENSO are presented in Tables 2 and 3.

Keywords

• el nino
• long-term
• phenomenon
• climate change