International Journal of Infectious Diseases (Feb 2024)

Long-term non-progression and risk factors for disease progression among children living with HIV in Botswana and Uganda: A retrospective cohort study

  • Samuel Kyobe,
  • Grace Kisitu,
  • Savannah Mwesigwa,
  • John Farirai,
  • Eric Katagirya,
  • Gaone Retshabile,
  • Lesedi Williams,
  • Angela Mirembe,
  • Lesego Ketumile,
  • Misaki Wayengera,
  • John Mukisa,
  • Gaseene Sebetso,
  • Thabo Diphoko,
  • Marion Amujal,
  • Edgar Kigozi,
  • Fred Katabazi,
  • Ronald Oceng,
  • Busisiwe Mlotshwa,
  • Koketso Morapedi,
  • Betty Nsangi,
  • Edward Wampande,
  • Masego Tsimako,
  • Chester Brown,
  • Ishmael Kasvosve,
  • Moses Joloba,
  • Gabriel Anabwani,
  • Sununguko Mpoloka,
  • Graeme Mardon,
  • Adeodata Kekitiinwa,
  • Neil A. Hanchard,
  • Jacqueline Kyosiimire–Lugemwa,
  • Mogomotsi Matshaba,
  • Dithan Kiragga

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 139
pp. 132 – 140

Abstract

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Objectives: We utilize a large retrospective study cohort derived from electronic medical records to estimate the prevalence of long-term non-progression (LTNP) and determine the factors associated with progression among children infected with HIV in Botswana and Uganda. Methods: Electronic medical records from large tertiary HIV clinical centers in Botswana and Uganda were queried to identify LTNP children 0-18 years enrolled between June 2003 and May 2014 and extract demographic and nutritional parameters. Multivariate subdistribution hazard analyses were used to examine demographic factors and nutritional status in progression in the pre-antiretroviral therapy era. Results: Between the two countries, 14,246 antiretroviral therapy-naïve children infected with HIV were enrolled into clinical care. The overall proportion of LTNP was 6.3% (9.5% in Botswana vs 5.9% in Uganda). The median progression-free survival for the cohort was 6.3 years, although this was lower in Botswana than in Uganda (6.6 vs 8.8 years; P <0.001). At baseline, the adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (aHRsd) of progression was increased among underweight children (aHRsd 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32-1.53), enrolled after 2010 (aHRsd 1.32; 95% CI 1.22-1.42), and those from Botswana (aHRsd 2; 95% CI 1.91-2.10). Conclusions: In our study, the prevalence of pediatric LTNP was lower than that observed among adult populations, but progression-free survival was higher than expected. Underweight, year of enrollment into care, and country of origin are independent predictors of progression among children.

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