A Final Cost Estimating Model for Building Renovation Projects

Abstract

The construction sector in Greece has been developing radically in the field of building renovations. The foremost problem for projects in the building construction industry is producing an accurate and reliable cost estimate at the onset of construction. The artificial neural network (AΝΝ) approach, using data available at the early stages of the project, can help resolve or prevent any kind of difficulty that could make the successful completion of a building less likely. ANNs have been highly efficient in gaining results which could prevent the failure of building constructions projects. The ultimate goal is to highlight the usefulness of the adoption of ANNs models to predict the final cost of a building renovation project. Thus, construction companies could avoid financial failure, provided that the gap between cost prediction and final cost for renovation projects is minimized. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for predicting renovation costs in Greek construction projects. The study, based on a comprehensive literature review and real renovation data from construction companies, employs IBM SPSS Statistics software to build, train, and test the ANN model. The model, which uses initial cost, estimated time, and initial demolition cost as inputs, is based on the radial basis function procedure. The model presents high performance with up to 2% sum of squares error and near zero relative error, demonstrating the ANN’s effectiveness in estimating total renovation costs.

Keywords

• artificial neural network models
• ANN
• cost prediction models
• cost estimation
• building construction projects
• building renovation projects