Дискурс Пи (Apr 2023)
Western Balkans: Influence Trends of External Stakeholders
Abstract
In the context of increasing international tension, the Western Balkans, as a historically formed arena for the clash of interests of the leading powers, require special analytical attention. The article raises questions of the international subjectivity of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and the self-proclaimed polity of Kosovo), as well as the positioning of the region in the current uncertainty of world politics. The main research focus is the political strategies, positions and specific steps of key external actors; trends and forecasts in terms of the influence of long-term beneficiaries of the Balkan political agenda. Special attention is paid to the problems of the vulnerability of the EU policy towards the Balkans, the imaginary monolithic nature of the "Western bloc", the resource capacity of Russia, and the Chinese potential in the Balkans. Based on the historical-systemic approach and the neorealism paradigm, the study analyzes the foreign policy goals and settings of the world's giants, leading their Big Balkan Game, and also revealsthe attitude of the local societies to the presence of "aliens" in the region. The rich empirical material made it possible to come up with a reasoned conclusion: the Western Balkans is highly dependent on external forces. The echo of the Ukrainian crisis has added urgency to the Balkan agenda but has not changed the composition of the key players. However, the level of their presence varies: the "Western bloc", as well as China, have the potential to increase their influence, while the resource capacity of the Russian Federation is limited to the Serbian segment. Nevertheless, the unity of the "collective West" in the Balkans is not monolithic, and the contradictions among the Western camp give Moscow opportunities to pursue a more subtle policy.
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