Using a Logistic Regression Model to Examine the Variables Influencing Changes in Northern Thailand’s Forest Cover and Comparing Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Protecting biodiversity and keeping the Earth’s temperature stable are both very important jobs performed by tropical forests. In the last few decades, remote sensing has given us new tools and ways to track changes in land cover. To understand what causes changes in forest cover, it is important to look at the things that affect those changes. However, there is not enough research that uses a logistic regression model (LRM) and compares the results with machine learning (ML) techniques to investigate the specific factors that cause forest cover change in remote mountainous areas like Thailand’s Mae Hong Son and Chiang Mai Provinces. Following a comparison of an LRM, a random forest, and an SVM, this study of the causes of changes in forest cover in Mae Hong Son found six important factors: soil series, rock types, slope, the NDVI, the NDWI, and the distances to city areas. Compared to the LRM, both the RF and SVM machine learning algorithms had higher values for the kappa coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictions, and sensitivity, especially the RF. Following what was found in Mae Hong Son, when the important factors were examined in Chiang Mai, the RF came out on top. It is believed that these results can be used in more situations to help make plans for restoring ecosystems and to promote long-lasting methods of managing land use.

Keywords

• forest changes
• logistic regression
• machine learning
• Mae Hong Son
• Chiang Mai