The Industry – a Vulnerable Source of Economic Recovery in Romania

Abstract

In a globalized world the exogenous shocks and related instabilities of economic variables have negative effects on the economic growth of each country. Increased sensitivity to shocks shows higher economic vulnerability and the persistence of its factors and features reveal structural deficiencies of the economy. Industry is a category of resource with a decreasing share in GDP in the European Union in the past decades, but still gives the first signs of slowdown in activity before crisis. The industrial production in Romania had a fast recovery among the EU Member States in 2011 based on the increase of the external demand. The paper focuses on the exposure of the Romanian industry to further economic instability by using an empirical analysis of short-term statistics. Since a high share of the Romanian industrial exports are EU oriented, the commercial channel is an important factor that may affect the post-crisis economic growth if the structural vulnerability does not decrease.

Keywords

• industry
• economic vulnerability
• trade dependence
• intra-industrial trade