Evaluation of vaccine rollout strategies for emerging infectious diseases: A model-based approach including protection attitudes

Abstract

Vaccine allocation strategies become crucial during vaccine shortages, especially in the face of potential outbreaks of new infectious diseases, as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address this, a specialized compartmental model is created, which simulates an emerging infectious disease similar to COVID-19. This model divides the population into different age groups and is used to compare various vaccine prioritisation approaches, aiming to minimize the total number of fatalities. The model is an improvement upon previous ones as it incorporates essential behavioural factors and is adapted to account for the protective effects of vaccination against both disease infection and transmission. It takes into account human behaviors such as mask-wearing and social distancing by utilizing specific parameters related to self-protection, awareness levels, and the frequency of daily person-to-person interactions within each age group. Furthermore, a novel method for dynamic vaccine prioritisation was introduced in this study. This approach is model-independent and relies on the dynamic R number. It is the first time such a method has been developed, offering a decision-making approach that is not tied to any specific model. This innovation provides a flexible and adaptable strategy for determining vaccine priorities based on real-time data and the current state of the outbreak.Our findings reveal crucial insights into vaccine allocation strategies. When the daily rollout rates are fast (0.75% or higher) and children are eligible for vaccination, prioritising groups with high daily person-to-person interactions can lead to substantial reductions in total fatalities (up to approximately 40% lower). On the other hand, if rollout rates are slower and overall vaccination coverage is high, focusing on vaccinating elders emerges as the most effective strategy, resulting in up to approximately 10% fewer fatalities. However, the scenario changes significantly when children are not eligible for vaccination, as they constitute a highly interactive population group. In this case, the differences between priority strategies become smaller. With fast daily rollout rates, prioritisation based on interactions achieves only a 7% reduction in total fatalities, while a slower rollout with vaccination of elders first leads to an approximately 11% reduction in fatalities compared to the scenario where children are eligible for vaccination. The impact of behavioural parameters is equally critical. When the self-protection levels exercised by the population are low, it significantly affects the optimal vaccine prioritisation strategy to be followed, making it essential to consider behavioural factors in decision-making.