Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin, Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the aim was to measure changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of a potential drought hazard area and determine the risk status of various meteorological and hydrological droughts by using the kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation methods. With that goal, in monthly, three-month, and 12-month time periods drought indices were calculated. Spatio-temporal distributions of the droughts were determined with each drought index for the years in which the most severe droughts were experienced. According to the results, the basin is under risk of meteorological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts in most of the area, and especially in the north, during the monthly and three-month time periods. During the 12-month period, it was found that most of the basin is under risk of hydrological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts, especially in the southern parts. The most effective interpolation method for the prediction of meteorological and hydrological droughts was determined as kriging according to the results of the cross-validation test. It was concluded that a drought management plan should be made, and early warnings and precautions should be applied in the study area. HIGHLIGHTS Drought characteristics were determined using five different drought indices.; Kriging, radial basis function (RBF) and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation methods were compared to find the smallest error rate.; Spatio-temporal drought patterns are analyzed in Euphrates River Valley, Turkey.; The maximum meteorological drought was observed in 1989 and between 2012 and 2017 in the Euphrates Basin.;

Keywords

• drought
• drought index
• drought map
• interpolation
• precipitation
• spatio-temporal analysis