GASTOS PÚBLICOS E CRESCIMENTO ECONOMICO NO BRASIL DA SEGUNDA METADE DO SÉCULO XX: uma abordagem do Teste de Causalidade de Granger

Abstract

The relaticnship belween public spending and GDP is lhe recurrenl subjecl 01 discussion on national and inlernalional economic literature, wilh lhe importance of the public sector in economic growlh measured in lerms of output elasticity with respect to these expenditures. However, less has been done to determinate whether economic growth is a cause or consequence of the growth of public spendings, basic objective of this study. For this, it was used the test of Granger causa lity between variables that would represent the GDP and government spendings in different specifications, for the three spheres of government. According to the earned results, public spending is, mostly, the consequence and not the cause of GDP growth, which supports the Wagner Law and allows important conclusions about this complex relationship in the Brazilian economy, during the second half of the past century.

Keywords

• government spending
• economic growth
• granger causality
• brazil
• the twentieth century