Importance-Performance Analysis and Utilization of Forecasting and Future Studies Methods to Decision Making in Joint and Combined Operation Fields

Abstract

In the past, most military operations were planned and implemented based on intelligence estimates, human resources, logistics and other estimates and operational plans. Meanwhile gradually, prediction, planning and decision-making techniques became more varied and expanded with the development of joint and even compound operations. In this paper, the utilization of prediction and future studies methods is considered various methods have been identified and introduced. By reviewing the application of these methods in scientific papers in the last 10 years and the opinions of experts, it has been found that it is increasing the trend of using prediction and futuristic methods. Based on library studies and interview with experts were identified forecasting and future studies methods in the two groups: quantitative and qualitative methods. 64 methods were extracted by using PCA method. The status of application of these methods was calculated in the decision-making environment of joint and compound operations by the importance-performance analysis method. The results show that quantitative methods: Maximum likelihood estimation methods, computer modeling, simulation, auto-regressive moving averages, nonlinear prediction methods, auto-regressive, vector, genetic algorithm and trend analysis and in qualitative methods: Micmac Analysis, Horizon Scanning, participatory future praxis, Cohort-Component Method, Strategic Visioning & Leadership, Wargaming, and Principal Component Analysis are more important. Finally, some suggestions have been made to improve the use of these methods in view of the need to familiarize decision makers in the Joint operation environment.

Keywords

• importance - performance analysis
• prediction and forecasting models
• future studies methods
• decision making
• joint operations environments