Charging load forecasting of electric vehicles based on sparrow search algorithm‐improved random forest regression model

Abstract

Abstract In order to solve the problem that the current charging load forecasting accuracy is not high, it is difficult to simulate the actual charging load distribution of Electric Vehicles (EVs), and it is impossible to reasonably predict the future load, a charging load forecasting model based on Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) improved Random Forest Regression (RFR) is proposed. The SSA is used to enhance the ability of global optimization and local exploration. Combined with the advantages of the RFR model, such as low generalization error, fast convergence speed, and few adjustment parameters, the SSA was used to optimize the parameters of the decision tree number and the number of split nodes in the RFR, and the optimal value of the parameters is obtained, so as to obtain the optimal performance of the RFR. Firstly, based on the concept of travel chain and conditional probability distribution, the user's travel habits are described. Monte Carlo simulation method was used to simulate the driving, parking, and charging behaviours of a large number of EVs in different regions, so as to obtain the charging load of EVs in different regions. Then, a charging load forecasting model based on SSA improved RFR is established. Monte Carlo simulation results are used as sample data to predict the charging load of EVs in different regions. Finally, taking a certain area as an example, the experimental results show that the charging load prediction model based on Sparrow Search Algorithm improved Random Forest Regression (SSA‐RFR) can accurately predict the charging load of EVs in different regions, and the charging load of different regional types is obviously different. Compared with the RFR model and other literature models, the SSA‐RFR model has better prediction accuracy, which verifies the feasibility and superiority of SSA‐RFR model in EVs charging load prediction.

Keywords

• electric vehicle charging
• load forecasting
• optimization methods