Optimizing Territorial Spatial Structures within the Framework of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Wuan

Abstract

Climate change has become a major worldwide problem, and land use/cover change has consistently played a crucial role in impacting the carbon cycle within terrestrial ecosystems. Territorial spatial planning stands as a relatively good policy option for the low-carbon model. The spatial correlation between carbon emissions and land use was established through environmental parameters in this paper. The territorial spatial structures in 2035 and 2060 under two scenarios of natural evolution and low-carbon development were simulated through the PLUS model. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of decreasing carbon emissions centered on towns, cities, mines, and industries is related to regional economic development, the distribution of forests, and the urban ecological environment. The implementation of territorial spatial planning aids in achieving carbon neutrality, whereas the low-carbon development scenario is more focused on it, which can provide ideas for territorial spatial planning adjustments. Both scenarios result in a large area of fallow land, indicating some conflict between farmland protection and low-carbon development. Optimizing management measures, energy structure, and industrial layout and strengthening regional coordination are key to promoting low-carbon development. This study might be useful in formulating regional carbon-neutral policies and improving territorial spatial planning.

Keywords

• carbon emissions
• spatialized estimate
• land-use simulation
• PLUS model
• territorial spatial planning
• multi-objective planning