Synergistic Impact of Active Case Detection and Early Hospitalization for Controlling the Spread of Yellow Fever Outbreak in Nigeria: An Epidemiological Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis

Abstract

Capturing the factors influencing yellow fever (YF) outbreaks is essential for effective public health interventions, especially in regions like Nigeria, where the disease poses significant health risks. This study explores the synergistic effects of active case detection (ACD) and early hospitalization on controlling YF transmission dynamics. We develop a dynamic model that integrates vaccination, active case detection, and hospitalization to enhance our understanding of disease spread and inform prevention strategies. Our methodology encompasses mechanistic dynamic modeling, optimal control analysis, parameter estimation, model fitting, and sensitivity analyses to study YF transmission dynamics, ensuring the robustness of control measures. We employ advanced mathematical techniques, including next-generation matrix methods, to accurately compute the reproduction number and assess outbreak transmissibility. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals two equilibria: disease-free and endemic, demonstrating global asymptotic stability and its impact on overall YF transmission dynamics, significantly affecting control and prevention mechanisms. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, we identify crucial parameters of the model that require urgent attention for more effective YF control. Moreover, our results highlight the critical roles of ACD and early hospitalization in reducing YF transmission. These insights provide a foundation for informed decision making and resource allocation in epidemic control efforts, ultimately contributing to the enhancement of public health strategies aimed at mitigating the impact of YF outbreaks.

Keywords

• yellow fever
• active case detection
• epidemiological modeling
• reproduction number
• sensitivity analysis
• parameter estimation