Potential impacts of climate change on child stunting via income and food price in 2030: a global-level model

Abstract

Background: In 2016, 23% of children younger than 5 years were stunted. Global-level modelling has consistently found that climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition. We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations and food prices. Methods: We developed a statistical model, driven by upstream poverty and food price models, to project moderate and severe stunting in children younger than 5 years in rural and urban areas in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries. Findings: We estimated that, in the absence of climate change, 110 million children younger than 5 years would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570 000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to more than 1 million under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural versus urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. Patterns in the results showed that, in countries where incomes remain low and food prices are relatively high (compared with incomes), further price rises tend to increase stunting. In contrast, in countries where incomes rise and food prices are relatively low, slowly rising prices tend to decrease stunting. Interpretation: Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price has provided new insights. The patterns in the results suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. Funding: The research was partially funded by the Office of the Chief Economist of the Climate Change Group and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery of the World Bank, and the NIHR Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank, NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health, or Public Health England.