Program and Nonprogram Wheat Acreage Responses to Prices and Risk

Abstract

Wheat acreage responses to expected wheat price and price risk are reversed for program and nonprogram-planted acreage in the northern plains, central plains, southern plains, and U.S. Expected wheat price has a strong negative effect on program-complying wheat acreage. Government support prices have a positive effect on program-complying and program-planted acreage. Price risk has a positive effect on program-complying wheat acreage and a negative effect on nonprogram-planted acreage. Estimated price elasticities are higher than in studies where risk was ignored.

Keywords

• censored regression
• government programs
• wheat acreage