Shifting spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of dengue incidence and associated meteorological factors in Jazan Region of Saudi Arabia from 2015–2020

Abstract

Background & objectives: Dengue poses a considerable public health threat in Saudi Arabia, with escalating outbreaks in Jazan, where seasonal rains create ideal mosquito breeding conditions. Elucidating local epidemiological dynamics is imperative to strengthen evidence-based prevention policies. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal, demographic, and meteorological patterns of dengue in Jazan from 2015-2020. Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized surveillance records for 3427 confirmed dengue cases. Descriptive analyses characterized geographic, seasonal, age, gender, and nationality distributions. Forecasting models project expected epidemics through 2025. Regression analysis identified climate factors associated with monthly case counts. Results: Dengue exhibited shifting seasonal peaks, transitioning into year-round transmission by 2019, indicating endemic establishment. Cases clustered in different high-burden sectors annually, requiring localized vector control. The majority of affected individuals were young male adults, with gender gaps narrowing over time. Saudi nationals had an escalating incidence, but non-citizens showed a higher risk, signaling importation threats. Seasonal outbreaks were associated with temperature, wind speed, and direction. Interpretation & conclusion: Enhanced surveillance, outbreak forecasting, targeted control activities, and integrated prevention policies grounded in continuous evidence assessment can effectively address endemic dengue transmission in Jazan. This study provides key insights to optimize data-driven decision-making for dengue control in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords

• dengue
• epidemiology
• spatiotemporal analysis
• vector control
• saudi arabia