Advancing the understanding and treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder with computational modelling

Abstract

The existing theories of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have inspired large volumes of research and have contributed substantially to our current knowledge base. However, most of the theories are of a qualitative and verbal nature, and may be difficult to evaluate and compare with each other. In this paper, we propose that one way forward is to use computational modelling to formulate more precise theories of PTSD that can be evaluated by (1) assessing whether the model can explain fundamental phenomena related to PTSD, and (2) comparing simulated outcomes with real data. Computational modelling can force us to describe processes more precisely and achieve stronger theories that are viable for testing. Establishing the theoretical groundwork before undertaking empirical studies can help us to avoid doing research with low probability of valid results, and counteract the replicability crisis in psychology. In conclusion, computational modelling is a promising avenue for advancing the understanding and treatment of PTSD.

Keywords

• PTSD
• theory
• system dynamics
• agent-based
• computational modelling
• mathematical modelling