Implications for conservation zoning in Teiči Strict Nature Reserve due to land use and cover change

Abstract

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This study investigates land use and land cover changes in the Teiči Strict Nature Reserve, Latvia, from 1982 to 2023 and models potential future changes based on four legislative scenarios extending to 2064. The research aims to assess the effectiveness of existing conservation zoning in relation to historical and projected changes in land use and land cover, addressing the ongoing debate between fixed and adaptable conservation strategies. The study employs remote sensing imagery, geographical information system data, and land use and land cover modeling methods to analyze historical changes and predict future trends. The results suggest substantial land use and land cover changes over the past four decades, including intensified urbanization, agricultural expansion, and a decline in peat bogs and forested areas. Scenario projections indicate that continued land use and land cover changes could further challenge the efficiency of current conservation strategies, with varying outcomes depending on legislative measures and climate change impacts. The study concludes that adaptive management and variable conservation zoning are necessary to address these dynamic changes and preserve the reserve’s ecological integrity. The results emphasize the importance of integrating predictive modeling into conservation planning to improve flexibility and sustainability in protected areas.

Keywords

• conservation zoning
• land use and land cover modeling
• nature reserves
• protected areas
• scenario modeling
• remote sensing