A novel prognostic nomogram for patients with extragastric mucosa‐associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma: A multicenter study

Abstract

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to explore predictors and construct a nomogram for risk stratification in primary extragastric mucosa‐associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma. Methods Extragastric MALT lymphoma cases newly diagnosed between November 2010 and April 2020 were assessed to construct a progression‐free survival (PFS)‐related nomogram. We also performed external validation of the nomogram in an independent cohort. Results We performed multivariate analyses of 174 patients from 3 hospitals who were included in the training cohort. Stage, hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) status, and Ki67 expression were significantly associated with PFS. These three factors were used to construct a nomogram, which was shown to have a C‐index of 0.89. Two risk groups (low risk and high risk) were identified by the prognostic model. The 5‐year PFS was 98.9% for the low‐risk group and 69.3% for the high‐risk group (p < 0.001). The overall survival (OS) could also be effectively distinguished by the nomogram, resulting in an OS of 100% for the low‐risk group and 94.6% for the high‐risk group (p = 0.01). These results were validated and confirmed in an independent cohort with 165 patients from another three hospitals. The 5‐year PFS rates were 94.8% and 66.7% for the low‐risk and high‐risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). The 5‐year OS rates were 97.9% and 88.4%, respectively (p = 0.016). Conclusion The nomogram could well distinguish the prognosis of low‐ and high‐risk patients with extragastric MALT lymphoma and is thus recommended for clinical use.

Keywords

• extragastric MALT lymphoma
• nomogram
• overall survival
• prognosis
• progression‐free survival