Analysis of predictive factors for gallbladder cholesterol polyp and gallbladder adenoma before surgery

Abstract

Objective To analyze the factors related to gallbladder cholesterol polyp (GCP) and gallbladder adenoma (GA) and establish predictive model for distinction between GCP and GA before surgery. Methods Patients with gallbladder polyps diameter≥10 mm diagnosed by ultrasonography in Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University and the First Hospital of Peking University from January 2015 to December 2019 were studied. There were GCP group and GA group based pathological diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to study the factors related to GCP and GA. Logistic linear regression was used to establish a predictive model and to evaluate the diagnostic effect. Results A total of 384 patients with gallbladder polyp were in this study with male to female ratio of 1:1.49 and age of (50.32±14.15) years. There were 250 patients (65.1%) in GCP group and 134 patients (34.9%) in GA group. Univariate analysis showed that five factors in quantitative data including age, blood glucose, low density lipoprotein, albumin, and total bile acid and three factors in count data including age 50 years or older, low density lipoprotein ≥3.1 mmol/L and total bile acid ≥10.0 μmol/L had significant difference statistically between two groups (P<0.05). Three factors were gotten as age, low density lipoprotein and total bile acid with significant difference statistically in multivariate analysis. The sensitivity of predictive regression equation were 74.8%, when P≥0.601 was used to diagnose cholesterol polyps. The regression equation was fitted by ROC curve and the area under curve was 0.662. Conclusions The equation on the factors of age, low density lipoprotein and total bile acid could be used to predict cholesterol polyps and adenomas preoperatively for patients with gallbladder polyps.

Keywords

• |gallbladder polyp|gallbladder cholesterol polyp|gallbladder adenoma|predictive model