Water level prediction of Liuxihe Reservoir based on improved long short-term memory neural network

Abstract

To meet the demand of accurate water level prediction of the reservoir in Liuxihe River Basin, this paper proposes an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network based on the Bayesian optimization algorithm and wavelet decomposition coupling. Based on the improved model, the water levels of Liuxihe Reservoir and Huanglongdai Reservoir are simulated and predicted by the 1 h prediction length, and the prediction accuracy of the improved model is verified separately by the 3, 6 and 12 h prediction lengths. The results show that: first, Bayesian optimization coupling can significantly reduce the average absolute error and root mean square error of the model and improve the overall prediction accuracy, but this algorithm is insufficient in the optimization of model extremum; Wavelet decomposition coupling can significantly reduce the outliers in model prediction and improve the accuracy of extremum, but it plays relatively weaker role in the overall optimization of the model. Second, by the prediction lengths of 1, 3, 6 and 12 h, the improved model based on the LSTM neural network and coupled with Bayesian optimization and wavelet decomposition is superior to Bayesian optimization and wavelet decomposition coupling model in overall prediction accuracy and prediction accuracy of extremum. HIGHLIGHTS Quantifying the impacts of coupling model on reservoir water level.; Proposing an improved prediction model for long short-term memory neural network.; Quantifying the impacts of different input characteristics on the model.;

Keywords

• deep learning
• foresight period
• long short-term memory
• reservoir level
• water level prediction