Probabilistic Forecast of Low Level Wind Shear of Gimpo, Gimhae, Incheon and Jeju International Airports Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

Abstract

Wind shear can occur at all flight levels; however, it is particularly dangerous at low levels, from the ground up to approximately 2000 feet. If this phenomenon can occur during the take-off and landing of an aircraft, it may interfere with the normal altitude change of the aircraft, causing delay and cancellation of the aircraft, as well as economic damage. In this paper, to estimate the probabilistic forecasts of low-level wind shear at Gimpo, Gimhae, Incheon and Jeju International Airports, an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) model based on a left-truncated normal distribution with a cutoff zero was applied. Observations were obtained from Gimpo, Gimhae, Incheon and Jeju International Airports and 13 ensemble member forecasts generated from the Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System (LENS), for the period December 2018 to February 2020. Prior to applying to EMOS models, statistical consistency was analyzed by using a rank histogram and kernel density estimation to identify the uniformity of ensembles with corresponding observations. Performances were evaluated by mean absolute error, continuous ranked probability score and probability integral transform. The results showed that probabilistic forecasts obtained from the EMOS model exhibited better prediction skills when compared to the raw ensembles.

Keywords

• Ensemble Model Output Statistics
• low-level wind shear
• probabilistic forecast
• left-truncated normal distribution