Ziyuan Kexue (Oct 2023)
Prediction of scrap volume and recyclable resource potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation equipment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Abstract
[Objective] Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is an important starting point for China to implement the clean energy transition towards achieving the dual carbon goals, but its large installed capacity has brought new e-waste management challenges, and research on future e-waste generation and resource recovery potential is of great importance for the scientific and effective management of scraps. [Methods] Based on the distributed PV data of the National Energy Administration from 2013 to 2021, this study used the market supply A model, logistic model, and resource estimation model to predict the scrap volume and recoverable resource volume of distributed PV power generation equipment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2022 to 2060. [Results] The results show that the cumulative scrap volume of distributed PV modules in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei could reach 4.8984 million kW, 3.930 million kW, and 83.3778 million kW respectively from 2022 to 2060. From 2022 to 2060, the cumulative total amount of recyclable materials in scrap photovoltaic modules in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be 2.9737 million tons, and the cumulative total amount of recyclable materials in scrap photovoltaic installation systems will be 76500 to 100100 tons. Among them, other materials in the photovoltaic modules amount to 2.7926 million tons, basic metal 0.1395 million tons, key metal 37500 tons, precious metal silver 3900 tons, special metal 200 tons, and toxic metal 1100 tons; The weight of aluminum, copper, steel, and zinc of the photovoltaic installation systems is 6700-8800 tons, 12800-16800 tons, 56800-74400 tons, and 130-170 tons, respectively. [Conclusion] In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, there is a significant presence of distributed photovoltaic waste, requiring prompt and efficient management strategies. Additionally, the wide variety of materials found in photovoltaic waste presents substantial opportunities for resource recycling. A well-designed recycling system is indispensable.
Keywords
