La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR

Abstract

This paper estimates the GDP gap in Venezuela by means of the structural VAR methodology and the Blanchard and Quah decomposition for the period 1999:1-2010:4. We use quarterly data for the inflation rate, real GDP, unemployment rate, and oil prices. We identify fiscal and monetary innovations on the demand side and technological and labor market disturbances on the supply side. Empirical results reveal that even though there is a wide gap between real and potential GDP at the beginning of the period, it tends to narrow towards the end of the period as a result of the rise in oil prices. The GDP sample forecast shows that this gap, eventually, could fall as a result of the contraction in economic activity during 2009 and 2010.

Keywords

• Business cycles
• potential output
• inflation
• oil prices
• SVAR models.