Spatial Analysis of Seasonal and Trend Patterns in Romanian Agritourism Arrivals Using Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Using LOESS

Abstract

Seasonal variations in the tourism industry consist of alternating patterns of overuse and underuse of touristic potential and resources, which correspond to overexertion in the peak periods and to reduced income levels in the trough periods. We analyze both trend and seasonal components for agritouristic boarding houses, conventional boarding houses, hotels, and overall arrivals in 41 Romanian counties by using the Season-Trend decomposition using the LOESS method previously used in forecasting. Our findings suggest that there is a moderate positive relation between trend and seasonality in agritouristic boarding houses, a situation that is not shared with other types of accommodation units studied. While at a country-wide level the seasonal character of agritourism is not significantly different from other types of accommodations studied, in some counties located in south-east Romania, the seasonality exhibited by agritourism is significantly lower. Agritourism seasonal patterns exhibit spatial correlation features, indicating that underlying natural and anthropic causes exert more influence than in the case of other types of accommodations. These findings may be used to shape public policy and entrepreneur behavior in agritourism and rural tourism, domains where farm income diversification is instrumental to surviving events such as crop failures, price changes, and consumer behavior.

Keywords

• tourism seasonality
• trend and seasonality in tourism
• STL decomposition
• seasonality in agritourism
• sustainable development
• agritourism