Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow responses in the Kessem watershed, Middle Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

In this study, we examined how future climate change will affect streamflow responses in the Kessem watershed. Climate variables from SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios were extracted from GCMs for the 2040s (2031–2060) and 2070s (2061–2090). The bias-corrected precipitation and temperature were converted into streamflow using a calibrated SWAT model. The simulated output of the future streamflow for the periods 2040s and 2070s was compared with the base period (1992–2020) and presented as percentage changes. During calibration and validation, the SWAT model showed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.79 and 0.77, as well as coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.8 and 0.79, demonstrating its capability of simulating streamflow. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted to increase, with a pronounced increase in the minimum temperature for the mid-term and long-term futures under both emission scenarios. As we approach the end of the century, we see an increase in annual mean rainfall and streamflow under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The increment in annual mean rainfall (streamflow) is expected to be 3% (12.5%) and 23% (48.8%) for the 2040s and 2070s, respectively, under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. HIGHLIGHTS The output of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) was used to extract climate variables for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios.; Temperature and precipitation systematic errors were corrected using the distribution mapping bias correction approach.; We integrated the bias-corrected climate variables with a calibrated SWAT model to evaluate streamflow response due to the impact of climate change.;

Keywords

• climate change
• gcms
• kessem watershed
• ssps
• swat model
• streamflow