A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Risk Factors and Outcomes in Bloodstream Infections Caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae

Abstract

Yingsha Chen,1,2 Shuaibing Ying,1 Lushun Jiang,1 Shaohua Dong,1 Jinyao Dai,1 Xuehang Jin,1 Wei Yu,1 Yunqing Qiu1 1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Infectious Diseases, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Wei Yu; Yunqing Qiu, State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China, Tel [phone], Fax [phone], Email [email protected]; [email protected]: Our study aimed to explore the risk factors in bloodstream infections Klebsiella pneumoniae (BSI-KP) patients and establish nomograms to predict the probability of BSI-CRKP and the prognosis of BSI-KP.Methods: A total of 252 BSI-KP patients were enrolled from a tertiary teaching hospital between January 1, 2015, and May 31, 2020. Risk factors associated with BSI-CRKP and factors associated with the 30-day mortality were identified using LASSO analysis, univariate and multivariate analysis.Results: There were 121 (48.0%) patients with carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP) and 131 (52.0%) patients with carbapenem-susceptible K. pneumoniae (CSKP). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that gastric tube indwelling before BSI (OR=2.442, P=0.043) and more types of antibiotics use before BSI (OR=1.305, P=0.009) were independent risk factors for BSI-CRKP. And previous transplantations, prior ICU stay, gastric tube indwelling before BSI, more types of antibiotics use before BSI, lower Hb and cholinesterase were associated with CRKP-BSI. The C-index of models indicated its good accuracy (C-index 0.816, 95% CI 0.763– 0.868). In patients with BSI-CRKP, further logistic regression analysis revealed urinary catheterization (OR=0.298, P=0.017) was found to be an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, while ceftazidime/avibactam use (OR=8.438, P=0.003) was an independent favorable prognostic factor. The nomogram predicated CRKP, ICU hospitalization, more types of antibiotics use, tigecycline, PLT, urinary catheterization were associated with 30-day mortality in patients with BSI-KP. The discriminative ability of the predictive model, as assessed by C-index, was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.780– 0.867).Conclusion: Previous transplantations, prior ICU stay, gastric tube indwelling before BSI, more types of antibiotics use before BSI, lower Hb and cholinesterase represent significant risk factors for the development of BSI-CRKP. Our nomogram predicated thrombocytopenia was a sign for poor prognosis. Tigecycline resulted in higher mortality for patients with BSI-KP. Rational use of nomograms may help clinicians make better Clinical decisions when treating BSI-KP patients.Keywords: carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, prognostic model

Keywords

• carbapenem-resistant klebsiella pneumoniae
• prognostic model