Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
Gengyuan Liu
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Corresponding author
Linyu Xu
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Sergio Ulgiati
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Department of Science and Technology, University of Naples ‘Parthenope’, Centro Direzionale, Isola C4, 80143 Naples, Italy
Marco Casazza
Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry, University of Salerno, Baronissi, Salerno, Italy
Yan Hao
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zhongming Lu
Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China
Xiaoya Deng
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Zhifeng Yang
Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China; State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Corresponding author
Summary: Substantial evidence indicates that China’s afforestation statistically contributed to the ecosystem services (ES) improvement. However, we found the potential challenges behind this improvement, especially in water-limited areas. We propose an attribution analysis method, which can assess the specific contribution of natural, human and cognition degree drivers to ES dynamics. The results found that the ratio of natural and human drivers in the area north of China’s 400 mm precipitation isopleth is 2:7. This means local vegetation capacity has already exceeded water limitation, implying a conflict between nature and humans. However, the natural contribution in the area between 400 and 800 mm precipitation isopleth is negative, whereas the human contribution is 91%. This means this area has fragile natural conditions and needs more flexible policies. The ratio of natural and human drivers in the region south of 800 mm precipitation isopleth is 6:3, suggesting the ecological policies here can be maintained.
