Detecting Relationship between the North–South Difference in Extreme Precipitation and Solar Cycle in China

Abstract

The sun plays a crucial role as the primary source of energy for the Earth’s climate system and the issue of the influence of solar activity on the climate has been actively discussed recently. However, the precise impact of solar activity on extreme precipitation on the decadal timescale remains insufficiently confirmed. In this study, we investigate the relationship between summer extreme precipitation events exceeding 20 mm (R20mm) in China and the 11-year sunspot number (SSN) cycle from 1951 to 2018. Results showed that the first mode of June–July R20mm, a “south-drought and north-flooding (SDNF)” distribution, exhibited a significant correlation with the SSN cycle (p = 0.02). The fundamental driver is likely the pronounced periodic response of stratospheric ozone to solar forcing. During summer of the high-solar-activity years (HSY), there is a notable increase in ozone concentration and high temperatures in the stratosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This phenomenon leads to a layer of anomalous temperature inversion, suppressing convection at the subtropics. This induced downward anomalous airflow toward the north stimulates convective activity in the equatorial region and generates northward wave activities. These wave activities produce rising and sinking anomalies at different latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere, finally causing the “SDNF” pattern in China.

Keywords

• solar cycle
• extreme precipitation
• south-drought and north-flooding
• climate
• East Asian summer monsoon