Using the Data of Geocryological Monitoring and Geocryological Forecast for Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change

Abstract

Permafrost monitoring should be organized in different ways within undisturbed landscapes and in areas with technogenic impacts. The state and dynamics of permafrost are described by special indicators. It helps to characterize seasonal and long-term tendencies and link them with permafrost hazards estimation. The risk is determined by the hazard probability and the vulnerability of infrastructure elements. The hazard does not have integral indicators, but is determined by separate spatial and temporal characteristics. The spatial characteristics include the ground’s physical and cryolithological features that are linked with the history of the permafrost. The temporal characteristics are associated with the future evolution of the climate and anthropogenic pressures. The geocryological monitoring content and geocryological forecasting are interdependent and should be implemented together. The adaptation recommendations are based on the analytical algorithms and use the results of permafrost monitoring and permafrost state forecasting. The development of an adaptation program is a recognition of the company’s responsibility for the sustainable development of resource management territories. Risk management uses the methods of the flexible ground temperature regime management.

Keywords

• permafrost state
• permafrost dynamics
• geohazards
• climate change adaptation
• infrastructure stability