Assessing the epidemiological risk at the human-wild boar interface through a one health approach using an agent-based model in Barcelona, Spain

Abstract

Wild boar (WB, Sus scrofa) populations are increasing in urban areas, posing an epidemiological risk for zoonotic pathogens such as hepatitis E virus (HEV) and antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter (AMR-CAMP), as well as non-zoonotic pathogens such as African swine fever virus (ASFV). An epidemiological extension of a validated Agent-Based Model (ABM) was developed to assess the one-year epidemiological scenarios of HEV, AMR-CAMP, and ASFV in the synurbic WB-human interface in Barcelona, Spain. The predicted citizen exposure was similar for HEV and AMR-CAMP, at 0.79% and 0.80% of the human population in Barcelona, respectively, despite AMR-CAMP being more prevalent in the WB population than HEV. This suggests a major role of faeces in pathogen transmission to humans in urban areas, resulting in a non-negligible public health risk. The ASFV model predicted that the entire WB population would be exposed to the virus through carcasses (87.6%) or direct contact (12.6%) in 51–71 days after the first case, with an outbreak lasting 71–124 days and reducing the initial WB population by 95%. The ABM predictions are useful for animal and public health risk assessments and to support risk-based decision-making. The study underscores the need for interdisciplinary cooperation among animal, public, and environmental health managers, and the implementation of the One Health approach to address the epidemiological and public health risks posed by the synurbization of WB in urban areas. The spatially explicit epidemiological predictions of the ABM can be adapted to other diseases and scenarios at the wildlife-livestock-human interface.

Keywords

• African swine fever virus
• Agent-based model
• Campylobacter
• Hepatitis E virus
• Sus scrofa
• Synurbization